美国汽车制造商的养老金黑洞可能被低估

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美国汽车制造商的养老金黑洞可能被低估

2003年08月24日09:53　

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　　新华网消息：高盛公司的一项研究显示，美国汽车制造商的养老金“黑洞”可能比投资者预计的大两倍多。

　　据英国《金融时报》22日报道，高盛公司的研究报告认为，由于美国汽车生产商采用的会计方法假设养老金的未来支付是固定不变的，从而导致这些养老金的赤字可能被低估400亿美元。

　　美国汽车制造商与工会每四年谈判一次。养老福利就是通过这些谈判来确定的。高盛的报告指出，如果假设养老福利每年增加3.5％，那么，通用汽车应承担的养老金支出将增加220亿美元，福特汽车的应付养老金将增加90亿美元，德国的戴姆勒－克莱斯勒公司的负担将增加50亿美元，而汽车零配件供应商德尔福公司的负担将增加40亿美元。

　　虽然这些公司的会计方法是符合美国的会计标准的，无可厚非，但是高盛指出，同样在养老金上出现问题的航空、钢铁和电信公司一般都假设养老福利每年增长4％，而在过去三十年中，汽车行业新增退休人员领取的养老金年均增长5.1％。

　　该报告的作者加里·拉皮德斯是高盛的汽车行业分析师。他说，如果投资者认识到这些问题，那么这些公司股票的合理价值将减少20％到70％；公司的债务远远超出所披露的数字。

　　通用汽车披露公司去年的养老金赤字是193亿美元。它认为，退休人员养老福利的增加远低于在职员工的报酬，因此高盛的报告有偏颇，并且夸大了养老金黑洞的数字。（谢艳红）Theholein US carmakers' pension funds could be more than twice as bigasinvestors thought, according to a study by Goldman Sachs.

　　The report concludes that deficits have been understated by$40bn(？6.5bn) because car companies' accounts assume there will benofuture increase in pension benefits.

　　Benefits at the carmakers are negotiated with unions as partoffour-yearly pay talks. Assuming a 3.5 per cent annual riseinbenefits would increase pension obligations by $22bn atGeneralMotors, $9bn at Ford, ？bn at Germany's DaimlerChrysler and$4bn atDelphi, the car parts supplier, the investment bankcalculated.

　　The companies are doing nothing wrong by assuming a zeroincreasein benefits, because the practice is in line with USaccountingstandards.

　　But Goldman noted that airlines, steel andtelecommunicationscompanies - many of which also have pensionproblems - generallyassume a 4 per cent annual rise in benefits,and benefits for newpensioners in the car industry have risen by anannual 5.1 per centover the past 30 years.

　　Gary Lapidus, auto analyst at Goldman and author of thereport,said the increase would wipe 20-70 per cent from the fairvalue ofthe shares if recognised by investors. "The liabilities arefarlarger than has been disclosed," he said.

　　General Motors - which reported a $19.3bn hole in its pensionfundlast year - dismissed Goldman's report as "sensationalistandlopsided".

　　It said the bank's calculation was "grossly inflated"becausepensioners typically received much lower raises thancurrentworkers.

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