Annual Sales in 2010 to Exceed 15 million

According to the forecast report released by Sinotrust, the sales of passenger vehicles in 2010 are expected to reach 11.3281 million, up 15.2%; the sales of commercial vehicles will reach 3.7967 million units with an increase of 15.3%. Lang Xuehong, the Vice President for Marketing Solutions of Sinotrust told the Beijing Youth Daily that growth of auto market in 2010 would slow down. The annual sales are expected to total 15.125 million, up 15.2%.

According to Sinotrust's report, the prosperity index for China's automobile industry in the third quarter of 2009 is 99.6(In 2001 the growth rate is 100). Compared with the previous quarter, the index rises by 2.7 points, which indicates that the economy has shown significant improvement in the automotive industry and the industry has got rid of downturn and entered an upstream channel. Lang Xuehong believed that prosperity index and other indicators had rebounded, which shows that the automotive market has warmed up again in 2009. This favorable trend will continue next year.

From a macroeconomic point of view, a number of institutions in western countries predicted that China's economic growth would be more than 10% in 2010. A better macroeconomic situation provides a good environment for the development of Chinese automotive market. Compared with the second quarter, the entrepreneur confidence index of China’s auto industry was up 2.3 points in the third quarter, indicating that entrepreneurs hold a strong confidence and the optimism continues to spread.

From the view related to the production, the production capacity of most automakers has reached the limit in the second half of 2009. We could always hear the news related to the expansion of production capacity. However, the expansion can't be achieved in a short term. Therefore the supply in 2010 will not soar and the growth rate is expected to reach 15%. According to statistics, the average growth rate of automobile growth from 2007 to 2009 is 21.6%, which is close to the growth rate in 2007. The high growth in 2009 is based on the accumulation of demands in 2008. And there is no overdraft in next year's demands. Therefore the demand in 2010 should not drop substantially.

According to the data, there are only 53 civil vehicles for per thousand Chinese people till the end of June 2009. In Europe and Japan, one thousand civilians usually have more than 600 cars. Therefore the penetration rate of automobiles is still low, even lower than some of the least developed countries and regions. At present China is still in the development phase. With sustained growth in incomes, this period will last for a few decades until the market becomes saturated. (Translator: Qinghua/ Hanxin)

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