New territory: Who will be the X in

　　Circumstances change with the passage of time. The traditional “6 +3” pattern in global automobile industry have been significantly changed since as early as in 2005. In February 2005, GM gave up stake in Fiat at the cost of 1.5 billion U.S. dollars; in October 2005, it sold out all shares of FHI; in April 2006, GM cleared away Isuzu’s shares; in 2006 and 2008, GM sold out all shares in Suzuki at twice. Now as GM has entered bankruptcy protection proceedings, Hummer and Saab are successively sold out. Meanwhile, one of the “six” in the “6+3” pattern Daimler-Chrysler Group also dissolved in May 2007. In contrast, although Hyundai-Kia is not included into “6 +3”did not, it global sales in 2008 was 4.15 million, ahead of Honda by nearly 400,000, ranking the sixth highest worldwide.

　　Today the traditional “6 +3” pattern is no longer exist while the new map of the global automotive industry has been engaged in minor adjustments all the time. The financial crisis has accelerated the speed of these adjustments, mainly reflected in the changes of the North American Big Three: Chrysler has been integrated by Fiat as it can not survive independently after two year’s separation while GM and Ford have constantly divested their own sub-brands or subordinate assets to ensure self-insurance. New “6 +3 + X” pattern is brewing through a series of changes within the global automotive industry.

　　The new six major groups include Toyota, Volkswagen, the new GM and Ford, Renault-Nissan Alliance a well as the new Fiat-Chrysler Alliance (new members may add). The new three small groups embody Hyundai - Kia, Honda and Peugeot-Citroen. In addition, Daimler, BMW and a number of Japanese car firms including Suzuki as well as car companies in emerging markets such as China and India are ignorable powers in the global automotive pattern. According to global vehicle sales of 2008, the new “6 +3”occupy about 80% of the global automotive market share with the number of 58 million.

　　As for GM will obtain rebirth or diminish quickly after bankruptcy protection? It is difficult to judge presently. Through surveys and analysis, 90% of the experts believe that, although the pattern of the global auto industry has been significant adjusted, there can be small changes, not structural ones in the later stage. The biggest two suspense are will GM fall out of first camp and will Fiat-Chrysler Alliance be successful.

　　Online survey show that nearly 60% of respondents believe that GM will not fall out of the first camp. In fact, More than 80% of the experts support this point of view. Being the world’s largest auto enterprise for years, no matter technical strength, including the strength of new energy vehicles or the management level of GM are considered the world’s advanced level. The high production cost caused by historical reasons made the company long relied on large vehicles with high profit margins, which led to ultimate failure due to high energy prices. Therefore, this time’s bankruptcy protection will help GM revive.

　　The status of number one in the history bring about many supportive resources for GM such as national governments, media, financial institutions, suppliers, distributors and other service organizations. Although the halo disappeared, it is not impossible for the new GM to restore its competitiveness to original level.

　　Chrysler’s fate in the future industrial pattern is the hardest to predict. Although the United States suffered heavy losses, over 90% of online voting shows that the U.S. auto industry will not decline or even extinct like Britain. There are three main reasons: First, from the macro-environment perspective, the U.S. government pay more attention to the real economy after this financial crisis, the best reflection of which is the Obama administration have hold their ground to save the U.S. auto industry by investing in GM; secondly, the huge auto market in recovering provides the American domestic automobile enterprises with the market conditions to survive; Finally, since the United States still maintain the world’s leading level in terms of many automotive technologies, Big Three experienced a rebirth will continuously to keep the considerable competitive advantages.

　　It seems structural changes will not occur in the global auto overall industrial pattern. However, the strength of major auto manufacturers will go up and down. Of course, the U.S. auto industry will not die. But in short term, affected by the financial crisis, the strengths are seriously weakened and the century glory of U.S. auto enterprises basically comes to an end. Suffered from internal damages, recovery of Japanese auto manufacturers will take some time and expansion strategy will be more cautious. The surging momentum in the global market in the old days has been halted. Affected only slightly, Germany and Korea auto manufacturers can be said to be e beneficiaries of the financial crisis to some extent.

　　(Translator: yalong/ Jessie)

　　See original Chinese report Please click: http://auto.sohu.com/20100324/n271049500.shtml