Market forecasted to be 10%~27% in 2010

Citing an undisclosed source from SOHU AUTO, the year 2009 is a time when the global automobile industry has been up and down and the structure of the automobile industry has been changed significantly. As the saying when the west is dark the east may be bright, the paces of different parts of word are not synchronized nowadays. This year, when the Chinese auto companies are going into the world more confidently, attracting more attention while the Japanese, Europe and the United States car markets are declining and some multinational auto companies are suffering a hard time.

A large number of experts and scholars from Committee of Experts on Chinese Auto Marketing gathered in Beijing to discuss and analyze the economic trend and the future of the auto market of our nation as well as the direction of the second-line and third-line marketing channels will be built in 2010.

Moderator: the forecast results have already been collected here. I will read out them one by one.

The number from president Xiong is 27%. He holds a view that the factors affecting the growth of automobile market will firstly be the speed of urbanization, and then the spending powers and patterns of persons born in 1980s. The third factor is the price of oil and production capacity of our automobile industry.

18%, from Yang Xinbin. He feels that the growth factors influence next year's auto market variables, one is the expanding rate of production capacity, the macroeconomic stimulus measures and the process of our urbanization will influence the growth of our auto market.

15%. Lin Lei is a little bit conservative. Influencing factors: the first is the adjustment of policies and the second the macroeconomic risks.

The number written by Jia Xinguang is 15% to 20%. There are three influencing factors: first, the macroeconomic trends, which primarily means the inflationary expectations. The second is the conditions for the use of cars; the third is the price of oil.

The fifth is the Dong Haining. The number he wrote is 12%. Three factors: policies the first and then the price. The formation of a new consumer groups is the last factor.

20%, from Expert Xue. Oh, here are no factors.

The forecast number from President Fu is 15%.Factors: the first is the policy and the second is the price of oil, and then the promotion of transport infrastructure. The last are other uncertainties such as natural disasters and the international economic situation.

And then it’s the turn for Mr. Cao Zhigang. President Cao is currently the most cautious forecasters, 10%. However, the influencing factors are not given.

Now come the last two. Expert Zhangli, 15% with no factors here. The forecast number from Expert Wang Xiaoguang is 17%.（translator：Yalong/Jessie）

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