作者：包亦农（Klaus Paur）思纬汽车研究大中华和韩国地区汽车行业董事总经理

　　【作者简介：包亦农拥有20多年市场营销和市场研究经验，其中15年致力于汽车行业。他自1995年作为高级调研员加入位于巴黎的索福瑞集团，从事汽车行业的定性、定量和特设项目调研。1997年他开始领导横跨欧洲和拉丁美洲的国际广告有效性跟进调研。2011年年初，包亦农加入了思纬公司，担任大中华及韩国地区汽车调研董事总经理一职。】

　　过去两年来，我们已经听到了太多关于中国汽车市场的利好消息。中国已经取代美国成为全球最大的汽车市场。每个月，我们都会看到销量再创新高或是中国公司在全球市场上异军突起的报道。例如，由于受到巴菲特的青睐，比亚迪声名远扬。通过收购国际知名汽车名牌沃尔沃，吉利实现华丽转身，不再是只生产小型廉价汽车的制造商。

　　然而，从年初至今，似乎出现了越来越多的负面消息。日本遭受大地震和海啸的重创，进而波及到中国本土的汽车生产。4月份新车销量较去年同期有所下滑，出现了24个月以来的首次负增长。尽管旗下有多款热销车型，比亚迪却无法抑制销量和股价的双双下跌。近日，华泰与萨博在中国合资生产的计划也落空。

　　我们不禁要问：这些问题真的如此糟糕吗？中国汽车市场的命运是否正在改变？

　　并非如此。自然灾害固然具有极强的破坏性，但是却不会对经济产生持续性的影响。相反，人们能够从中认识到结构上存在的缺陷并加以改进，最终推动经济更好的发展。我们可以期待汽车工业的供应链管理将有所改变，最终中国本土的汽车生产将实现更高程度的自给自足。

　　华泰与萨博合作计划的落空并非没有好处。尽管中国对收购国外技术很感兴趣，但我们并不确定华泰这样一家规模较小的企业能否从合作中受益。毕竟，中方的参与可能仅限于给萨博注资，帮助其恢复生产，华泰并不一定能够获得所需要的先进技术。这一点，我们只要看看中国几大汽车企业与国际企业成立的合资公司在技术转让方面遇到的一系列棘手问题，便可略知一二。

　　针对比亚迪，我们应当考虑它近几年来所取得的成就。比亚迪或许应当将注意力转向产品交付的问题，而不是承诺在新能源汽车领域推出可行的产品。不过比亚迪在电动汽车方面仍然有不错的前景，同全球历史最为悠久的汽车公司戴姆勒-奔驰的合作便是明证。

　　接下来的问题关系到中国汽车市场的需求结构。新车销售是否失去了后劲？政府曾鼓励人们购买1.6升或更小排量的汽车，有证据显示近几年来这一举动有效推动了市场增速。补贴优惠吸引了对价格最为敏感的消费者，人们能够更早的实现拥有一辆汽车的梦想了。除此之外，之前的减税措施也令消费者享受到了暂时的价格优惠，提前释放了很大一部分购买潜力。今年年初，政府刺激举措到期，一定程度地影响了如今的销量。

　　尽管上涨的油价以及一些城市（如北京）限制购车的决定或许会阻止一部分人购买新车，但中国汽车市场的整体需求结构仍然需要保持健康状态。比如高端车市场，虽然没有受益于政府的支持，但过去一段时间这一市场始终保持着健康的发展势头。2011年头几个月，高端车市场依然保持了良好的增长势头。假定未来经济状况保持稳定，中国的新车销售将回归平稳状态。一方面，国内的消费者在购车方面整体需求稳定。另一方面，一部分老旧汽车的淘汰更新将使得汽车置换领域的市场潜力不断上升。

　　总而言之，目前新车销量的下滑应当被视为与市场相适应的调整。另外，这也证明即便在中国，汽车市场的发展也不会永无止境的一片向好。

　　本文为独家供给搜狐汽车刊载的原创文章，版权归搜狐汽车所有，未经许可，不准转载

　　Trees don't grow sky-high – not even in China

　　By Klaus Paur

　　15th May 2011

　　We have been spoiled with good news about the Chinese auto market in the past two years. China has overtaken the United States to become the largest vehicle market in the world, and month by month we read reports about record-breaking sales figures and Chinese companies emerging as global players in the market – take for example BYD's rise to international fame by Warren Buffet's endorsement, or Geely's transformation from a manufacturer of small and cheap cars to the owner of international premium brand Volvo.

　　The year 2011 so far however, seems to have reserved more bad news: The dramatic events in Japan that so devastatingly touched the population, have eventually left their mark on local Chinese automotive production. Overall, new vehicle sales are declining with the first negative year-on-year growth in April, for 24 months. BYD, the shooting star of recent times with its best selling model, sees its sales volume continue to fall, along with its share price. And most recently, a proposed collaboration between Hawtai and Saab for a joint vehicle production in China has fallen through.

　　The inevitable question to ask: is this all as bad as it sounds, and have the fortunes turned in the Chinese auto sector?

　　Not quite. As deplorable as natural catastrophes may be from a humanitarian point of view, they won't have a lasting impact on the economy – on the contrary, structural weaknesses can be identified, improvements implemented and eventually economies may even emerge stronger than before. For the auto industry, we can expect a revamp of supply chain management, allowing China to ultimately accomplish greater self-sufficiency in its local car production.

　　The Hawtai-Saab collaboration may have been terminated for good reason. While China has an interest in acquiring foreign know-how, it is questionable whether Hawtai, at this point a rather insignificant market player, would have really been able to benefit from this partnership. After all, the Chinese engagement may have come down to a financial injection helping Saab to resume production, without allowing Hawtai access to the desired latest vehicle technology. Just look at how tricky the issue of transferring technology has turned out to be for the big Chinese car makers in their current Joint-Ventures with international car manufacturers.

　　With regard to BYD, we should not write-off the car maker from Shenzhen, but consider how much they have achieved in just a few years. They may have to shift their attention to a stronger commitment of delivery, rather than promising viable market offerings in the field of alternative energies, but the company still has a promising future with battery electric technology vehicles – Its collaboration with Daimler Benz, the world's oldest car maker, is testament to this.

　　That leaves the question regarding the demand structure in the Chinese car market: are new vehicle sales losing steam? There is evidence to suggest that the market growth in recent years has been inflated by government incentives for low displacement engine vehicles, up to 1.6 liters. Subsidies have attracted the most price-sensitive car consumers, as small car ownership has become affordable earlier than expected. In addition, the previous tax cuts brought purchase decisions forward, as consumers took advantage of the temporary cheaper prices. The consequence: when the government incentives expired at the beginning of this year, these behavior patterns disappeared with them, along with a portion of actual current sales potential that has already been realised.

　　While rising fuel prices and several local initiatives to limit vehicle sales (e.g. in Beijing) may prevent some people from buying new cars, the overall demand structure in the Chinese car market should remain healthy, nevertheless. The best example is the premium market segment which has enjoyed healthy progress in the past – without benefitting from any government support – and has retained considerable growth in the first months of 2011. Assuming a stable economic field in the future, new car sales demand in China is expected to return to solid growth, fueled by a general demand for car ownership in the mainland taking root, and increasing potential for vehicle replacement, based on the aging vehicle fleet.

　　All in all, the current slow-down of new car sales has to be seen as a necessary adjustment in an economic market sense, and also as important proof that trees don't grow sky-high, not even in China.