作者：包亦农（Klaus Paur）思纬汽车研究大中华和韩国地区汽车行业董事总经理

　　【作者简介：包亦农拥有20多年市场营销和市场研究经验, 其中13年致力于汽车行业。于1995年开始服务于TNS汽车组巴黎总部，主要负责欧洲和拉丁美洲地区广告的有效性分析。2003年，Klaus来到中国，开始组建TNS中国汽车组，并逐步开展TNS在中国内陆地区的汽车研究项目。在他的带领下，TNS中国汽车业务取得了快速的成长。2007年，包亦农被任命为北亚太区汽车研究总监，职责亦包括了大中华地区和韩国地区的汽车相关业务，以及TNS 北亚地区的协调运作，等等。】

　　以“创新•未来”为主题的2011上海车展即将拉开大幕，在各项准备工作如火如荼的进行时，我们不妨来对中国汽车制造商的现状进行一番梳理和分析。

　　对于中国自主品牌来说，2009年和2010年是创纪录的两年。总体来说在和国际合资品牌的竞争过程中，自主品牌大幅提高了自己的市场份额。

　　然而，对于自主车企而言，2011年的开局并不理想。政府针对小排量汽车的补贴政策纷纷到期，这抑制了低端市场上消费者的新车购买需求。这部分消费者对汽车价格最为敏感，通常他们会选择本土厂商的产品。 然而还有更加不利的消息传出，随着广汽本田、上汽通用五菱以及东风日产等合资厂商纷纷推出自主品牌（理念、宝骏、启辰等），目标直指原本是中国本土企业占据优势的低端乘用车细分市场，而且其它合资厂商也在跃跃欲试。与此同时，中国自主品牌还没有准备好在高端车细分市场与合资企业展开拼争。

　　换言之，目前的中国自主品牌正在经历着前所未有的巨大压力。那么对于未来，他们又有着怎样的规划和期待呢？尽管一大批国内厂商市场表现活跃，但只有少数本土企业能够真正脱颖而出，尤其是对于大多数私营汽车企业而言：

　　奇瑞已经提前采取行动，与国际知名的AVL公司合作开发动力系统，并且为其研发项目设定了技术标准。这些措施帮助奇瑞稳居中系汽车销量首位，同时奇瑞也是中国最大的汽车出口企业。

　　除收购沃尔沃的交易外，在品牌规划方面，在母品牌下划分三个子品牌（全球鹰、帝豪和英伦）的决定也令吉利声名大噪。值得人们注意的是，吉利颇为低调地收购了澳大利亚DSI自动变速器公司。收购交易让吉利在提升产品传动系统、改善燃油经济性方面占据了有利地位。很显然，吉利注重创新，努力提升自己的技术水平。要想在汽车行业获得持久的成功，这些举措都是不可或缺的。

　　在创新之路上，长城汽车选择了另一种不同的方式，从原先知名的皮卡及商用车生产商，成功地转变为一个颇具吸引力的乘用车品牌。长城是少数几个从去年至今依旧保持迅猛势头的公司之一，并且依然呈现出良好的发展态势。

　　比亚迪或许是最具名气的中国自主汽车品牌，一方面因为其股东之一是声名显赫的沃伦•巴菲特，另一方面是由于其在电动汽车技术方面出色的营销活动。在小型及廉价汽车领域比亚迪成功推出了中国市场上销量最好的车型——F3。然而，在强化产品组合方面，比亚迪则显得有些行动缓慢，而且没能完全履行其关于新能源汽车的承诺，这一点可以从最近比亚迪大幅降价的举措中看出来。现阶段比亚迪的股价遭遇重挫，使之陷入了一个相当危险的境地。与戴姆勒奔驰合作开发电动汽车的项目巩固了比亚迪的信誉，但产品发布却要等到2013年。不过，电池技术方面的专长还是让比亚迪在替代能源汽车领域占据着有利地位，成为创新领袖之一。

　　那么我们又当如何看待一汽、上汽、东风等国有大型汽车企业的前景呢？这些厂商已经开始斥资打造合资自主品牌，但似乎他们的销售业绩仍要依赖于同国际合资伙伴一道运作的业务，同时还存在着转移自身业务重点的风险。换句话说，在中国汽车销量高速增长了十多年后，外国汽车制造商已经坐稳了头把交椅，并且掌控着技术创新的步调。即便在替代能源领域，原本中国汽车厂商应当脱颖而出，但通用汽车（如雪佛兰Volt）、日产（如聆风）等国际品牌还是抢先一步推出了产品，占据了优势。

　　毫无疑问，中国的汽车制造商将帮助塑造中国乃至全球汽车产业的未来。但是，在产品开发方面，私营汽车企业需要减少对国际汽车厂商的依赖，而国有车企更不应当被它们的外国合资伙伴束缚住手脚。未来几年，如何实现这一目标将成为政府面临的主要挑战。

　　本文为独家供给搜狐汽车刊载的原创文章，版权归搜狐汽车所有，未经许可，不准转载

　　Innovation for tomorrow – what does the future hold for Chinese car makers?

　　By Klaus Paur

　　As we gear up for the 2011 Shanghai Autoshow – this year promoting “innovation for tomorrow” – the time is right to analyse the current situation for Chinese car makers.

　　After two record years during which domestic makes as a group made substantial gains in market share from international joint-venture (JV) brands, 2011 did not start with good news for Chinese auto makers. Government incentives to subsidize low engine displacement cars were phased out, which has discouraged the most price-sensitive consumers particularly in the lower tier markets from purchasing new cars – usually of Chinese origin.

　　Even more bad news is looming, as JV manufacturers such as Guanqi Honda, SGM Wuling and Dongfeng Nissan have established their own independent JV brands (LiNian, BaoJun and QiChen) specifically targeting the low end passenger vehicle segment, traditionally a Chinese stronghold, with others likely to follow. At the same time Chinese brands are not yet ready to compete in the higher vehicle segments. In other words, Chinese car makes today are under pressure. So what lies in store from their perspective for tomorrow? While a multitude of domestic players are active in this market, only a few Chinese manufacturers stand out from the crowd – notably independent and mostly privately-owned ones:

　　Chery has taken early action to work on own powertrain systems with international specialist AVL and set the technological basis for is vehicle development program. It has helped the company to become the largest passenger vehicle brand in China by sales volume, and biggest exporter of Chinese-made cars to overseas markets.

　　Geely has not only made headlines with their bold take-over of Volvo, but also with their decision to henceforth market their homegrown vehicles under three different brands (GLeagle, Emgrand, and Englon). Take also into consideration their much less publicized acquisition of Australian gearbox maker DSI, which has put the company in a formidable position to upgrade transmission systems in their products and push for better fuel-economy. Geely is clearly on a path of innovation and improvement of its technological know-how, which is indispensable for sustainable success in this industry.

　　Greatwall has chosen a different approach to innovation, and successfully converted from a recognized maker of pickups and commercial vehicles to an attractive brand of a wide range of passenger vehicles. The company is one of the few to keep momentum from last year, still displaying a healthy growth in the market.

　　And then there is BYD, probably the most prominent Chinese car brand thanks to its well known international shareholder Warren Buffet, as well as its successful marketing campaign around battery electric vehicle technology. BYD has efficiently exploited the run for small and cheap cars, which earned the company the best selling model in the China market, the F3. They have however been slow in enhancing their vehicle portfolio, and also fell short in delivering on the promise of alternative energy vehicles, seeing its current share price tumble. This puts the car maker in a rather precarious position. Its partnership with Daimler Benz to jointly develop electric vehicle offerings secures the car maker’s credibility, but the market launch is not expected before 2013. Still, BYD’s know-how in battery technology puts it in a favourable position to be one of the innovation leaders in the field of alternative energy vehicles.

　　What about the major state-owned car makers, FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, and the like? They have all started to invest in self-developed brands, but seemingly their successful operations with international JV partners drive business results, and risk divertingfocus from their own activities. To put this a different way, after a decade of quickly growing vehicle sales in China, the foreign car manufacturers are sitting firmly in the driving seat and control the pace of technological innovation. Even in the alternative energy sector, which is supposed to be a field for Chinese car makers to excel, international brands like GM (with its Chevrolet Volt) and Nissan (with its Leaf) are going to take advantage with product launches ahead of their Chinese counterparts.

　　There is no doubt that Chinese car manufacturers will help to shape the future of the auto industry in China, and globally. But if these are not only going to be privately owned companies then the reliance on international car makers in terms of product development needs to be reduced, and a much needed emancipation of state-owned manufacturers from their foreign JV partners must be obtained. How to achieve this will be one of the major challenges of the Central Government in the years ahead.